The fall of Marine Le Pen: Banned after demanding same for others
Le Pen’s ban from any election has derailed her 2027 presidential bid, triggering turmoil within her party. Doubts are mounting over her designated successor as voters may turn to alternatives amid accusations of hypocrisy over the party’s demands to be treated differently in the face of justice.
M arine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party, has been convicted by a Paris court of embezzling EU Parliament funds. She received a four-year prison sentence — with two years suspended and the requirement to wear an electronic bracelet — a €100,000 (£83,000) fine, and an immediate five-year ban from seeking public office, effectively disqualifying her from the 2027 presidential election.
The court found that Le Pen and 24 other RN officials misappropriated over €4.1 million (£3.5 million) of EU Parliament funds between 2004 and 2016. These funds, intended for parliamentary assistants, were used to pay party staff in France. The verdict also implicated eight Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and 12 parliamentary aides.
Le Pen denies wrongdoing and announced her intention to appeal the verdict, asserting that the charges are politically motivated. She likened the ruling to a political assassination aimed at ending her political career and preventing her supporters from electing her as President of France in 2027, as she is currently the frontrunner in opinion polls with strong voter support (34-37% of voting intentions). Her closest allies describe the court decision as evidence of “tyrannical judges” suppressing dissent.
The election ban has significant implications for France’s political landscape. Le Pen, who faced Emmanuel Macron in the second round of the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, had been preparing for another bid in 2027. With her sidelined, attention will turn to Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old president of her party, as a potential successor. Bardella has recently gained popularity, particularly among younger voters. However, despite leading the party to victory in the European Parliament elections last year, he failed to become Prime Minister when Macron dissolved Parliament, and his lack of experience in national office raises doubts about his preparedness to contest — and potentially win — a presidential campaign.
Politicians’ Hypocrisy
The ruling has sparked a range of reactions in France. The Green Party, the Communists, the Socialist Party and President Macron’s party, Ensemble, have all stated that the judicial decision is fair, accusing Marine Le Pen of employing a victimisation strategy and labelling her a hypocrite — pointing to a past interview, in 2013, in which she argued that politicians involved in cases like hers (embezzlement of public funds) should be banned for life from standing for election.
I heard the President of the Republic say that what should be done is to make those who are convicted ineligible for life. Up to that point, I completely agreed — it was part of my presidential manifesto. But he was only referring to corruption and tax fraud.
But why not include other offences? Why not favouritism, why not embezzlement of public funds? Why not for fictitious employment?
In 2013, Marine Le Pen argued that politicians involved in embezzlement of public funds should be banned for life from standing for election.
However, far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon and members of the Prime Minister’s party have shown greater sympathy towards Le Pen, as both Prime Minister François Bayrou and Mélenchon are facing similar investigations related to the European Parliament and are awaiting their own trials. Bayrou did express support for the judiciary but questioned the severity of the political ban, suggesting that legal reforms might be necessary.
Meanwhile, the centre-right party Les Républicains’ leadership appears focused on seizing the opportunity to attract Le Pen’s voters, who may consider them if she cannot run in the 2027 presidential election.
The International Reactionary reacts
As for the response from international far-right and libertarian figures, which some call the ‘International Reactionary’ (or if they were a Marvel film, maybe ‘Reactionaries Assemble: Age of Regression’), it was swift and coordinated.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán posted “Je suis Marine” on X-Twitter, referencing the “Je suis Charlie” slogan in solidarity. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expressed support on behalf of Vladimir Putin, calling the verdict a “violation of democratic norms.” Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders said, “I support and believe in her for the full 100% and I trust she will win the appeal and become President of France.” Italy’s far-right Matteo Salvini slammed efforts to sideline Le Pen and said, “We will not be intimidated, we will not stop: full speed ahead my friend.” Far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also condemned the ruling, “I think that no one who cares about democracy can rejoice in a sentence that affects the leader of a large party and takes away representation from millions of citizens.” Spanish far-right leader Santiago Abascal said: “They will not succeed in silencing the voice of the French people.” In the UK, Nigel Farage said Le Pen has been “cancelled”. In Brazil, former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro commented to Reuters, “This ruling is clearly left-wing judicial activism. Wherever the right-wing is present, the left and the system will work to get their opponents out of the game.” In the United States, Trump called Le Pen’s conviction a “very important matter”, adding, “She was banned for five years and she was the leading candidate. That sounds like this country, that sounds very much like this country.”
— CREDIT: X-TWITTER/VIKTOR ORBAN —
Elon Musk also commented, “When the radical left can’t win via democratic vote, they abuse the legal system to jail their opponents,” adding, “This is their standard playbook throughout the world”, echoing the sentiments of Trump and Bolsonaro, who have positioned themselves as victims of judicial overreach – Bolsonaro still faces prosecution before Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for his alleged role in the 8 January 2023 coup attempt that saw thousands of his supporters storm government buildings in Brasília in an effort to overturn the election result.
The Rassemblement National has now announced plans for a “peaceful” demonstration/rally in Paris on Sunday in response to the verdict and is preparing for a legal appeal. However, some security experts and politicians, including centre-right figure Xavier Bertrand, have warned of the risk of a Capitol-style protest on the day of this demonstration.
Misreading the public opinion?
Interestingly, public opinion does not appear to support Marine Le Pen or her narrative concerning the ruling, with a poll indicating that 68% of respondents view the judgment as fair. Has Le Pen miscalculated by portraying herself as a victim in the public eye, driven by fear that she may lose her grip on the party if she is unable to stand as a candidate in the 2027 presidential election, potentially in favour of her wholly inexperienced 29-year-old protégé, Bardella?
Could she also be at risk of losing support among her party’s voters, who may now begin to see the Rassemblement National as just another political party — one that engages in fraud and questionable practices when given a measure of power — in stark contrast to its usual narrative of being morally superior to other parties and its well-known slogan, “Mains propres et tête haute” (“Clean hands and head held high” – a slogan that dates back to March 1993, suggesting that the party operates honestly, without corruption “clean hands”, and with dignity and confidence “head held high”, to distinguish it from what it portrays as a corrupt political establishment)?
Such an event could, in fact, trigger an exodus of voters from the Rassemblement National towards other radical far-right parties and candidates, such as the hard-right Éric Zemmour. Others may choose to return to the mainstream parties they previously supported, such as Les Républicains.
Le Pen may now fear that what befell her father — whom she ultimately expelled from the party he founded after he became a liability due to numerous scandals — could in turn happen to her at the hands of her young lieutenant, Jordan Bardella, as she herself becomes a collateral liability.
The 56-year-old politician is likely to fear that this scenario is imminent, potentially leading to an implosion of her party just months after the death of Le Pen senior, and a couple of years before the next presidential election.
Marine Le Pen’s situation is reverberating as far as the United Kingdom, where Nigel Farage and his party, Reform UK, like vultures, are attempting to capitalise on the remnants of a Conservative Party that no longer reflects the values of its electorate, following a series of missteps, misleads and misjudgements during Brexit and the COVID crisis.
As Open Britain’s CEO, Mark Kieran, rightly explained to the organisation’s supporters on Monday: “Predictably, the far-right always play the victim whenever basic accountability rules are enforced on them. Le Pen is doing it right now, claiming France is now a “tyranny” under “tyrannical judges.” Unsurprisingly, The Telegraph and The Spectator’s editors seem to agree.
“But real justice doesn’t cater to the victim complexes of demagogues or right-wing tabloids. It holds up the most basic tenet of democracy, that we live in a society, that society has rules we all agree on, and that anyone and everyone who breaks them should face the music.”
The Rassemblement National’s future direction remains uncertain as it navigates this significant political setback. France’s political landscape — already complex following last year’s legislative elections — also remains unclear in light of this growing uncertainty.
Marine Le Pen remains presumed innocent until the conclusion of the legal process — that is, when the judicial decision becomes final.
GOING FURTHER
What to know about Marine Le Pen’s ban from public office in France | ASSOCIATED PRESS
What is Marine Le Pen guilty of in National Rally embezzlement case? | THE GUARDIAN
With Le Pen barred from running for president, is her lieutenant, Jordan Bardella, up to the challenge? | LE MONDE
Le Pen's right-wing European allies condemn court verdict as threat to democracy | BBC NEWS
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