Farage in Downing Street: Is a political earthquake looming?

Reform UK tops shock poll with 225 seats — eclipsing Labour and the Tories — as disillusioned voters reject the political status quo, exposing cracks in Britain’s electoral system and trust.

TODAY

Apr 7, 2025 — 2 min read

Reform UK is on the brink of a political breakthrough — and it could shake Britain to its core. New projections from PLMR, working with Electoral Calculus, place Nigel Farage’s party in first place with 225 seats if a General Election were held today. With just 25% of the vote, that would give Reform more than a third of all parliamentary seats — a staggering result under the UK’s first-past-the-post system.

Meanwhile, Labour and the Conservatives are deadlocked at 23%, trailing behind with 180 and 133 seats respectively. Among the high-profile casualties would be Labour frontbenchers Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, and Rachel Reeves.

Farage’s surge is fuelled by voter disillusionment and a voting system increasingly seen as unfit for purpose. The prospect of Reform UK achieving such a substantial parliamentary presence with a quarter of the vote raises pressing questions about the representativeness and fairness of the UK's electoral framework.

“This speaks to a wider crisis of political confidence,” said Kevin Craig, CEO of PLMR. A third of voters say they trust none of the main party leaders to represent Britain internationally; another quarter are unsure.

Despite praise for the Prime Minister’s handling of international affairs — including Donald Trump and Ukraine — such achievements aren’t translating into domestic support. Voters still feel the pinch of economic uncertainty, and many link their financial outlook to their political trust. Those optimistic about their finances prefer Keir Starmer, while the more pessimistic lean towards Farage.

57% of respondents say cannot name a party leader they trust. 16% say they trust Sir Keir Starmer and Farage respectively, while only 5.4% trust Tory leader Badenoch.

With a volatile electorate and no party commanding a clear lead, coalition-building looks inevitable. As Craig warns: “The Prime Minister must now focus on getting his message across to voters in the UK, and instilling confidence in his domestic economic agenda, as this continues to be essential for unlocking voter support.”

The next major test comes in May’s local elections — and the outcome could reveal just how far traditional politics has fallen out of favour.