The following chart displays the voting intention percentages for the next general election in the UK (expected to take place in 2029). The chart is updated regularly.

Analysis

• In the latest YouGov poll, Labour leads narrowly with 24%, closely followed by Reform UK at 23% and the Conservatives at 22%, reflecting a highly competitive race. The Lib Dems have risen to 17%, showing momentum, while the Greens hold steady at 9%. Smaller parties like SNP (3%) and Plaid Cymru (1%) remain minor players. Labour’s slight lead highlights a fragmented political landscape with no clear frontrunner.
• Despite being in government with a large majority, Labour has struggled to open a clear lead, particularly over Reform UK. This stagnation can largely be attributed to controversial decisions and perceived backtracking on key social commitments (pension, cuts to welfare...). These measures have alienated parts of their traditional base, especially working-class and older voters, many of whom are now drifting towards Reform UK in protest. The polling suggests growing disillusionment with mainstream politics, creating fertile ground for populist challengers.

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Sources:

▪ Cover: Unsplash/LXRCBSV. (Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.)

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